Polls Gone Crazy
March 20th, 2008 at 05:39pm Geoff
There has been a spate of polls released in the last few days by many different organizations and on many different things—whether they be national or state polls. And each one of them seems to reveal a completely different race. For example, Gallup has Sen. Clinton defeating Sen. McCain in a potential match-up 51% to 46% whereas Rasmussen has Sen. McCain defeating Sen. Clinton 51% to 41%. This wide disparity holds in polling of a Sen. McCain-Obama race as well.
The only lesson that can be drawn from this is that polls aren’t to be trusted at the moment. In both possible general election races we can only hold that it is essentially a tie; just take a look at the RealClearPolitics averages of each match-up. Until the Democratic nominee is determined and the dynamics of the campaign reveal themselves there is only so much value in general election polling at the moment, and until then all candidates seem to be on pretty equal footing (which is pretty good for Sen. McCain).
What can be determined from recent data is that Sen. Obama is coming down to earth, nay falling down to earth. Examine some state polling numbers released today. Rezko, ‘3a.m.’, and Rev. Wright have all inflicted body blows on Sen. Obama and there is irrefutable evidence that at this point his campaign is swooning.
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3 Comments
1. congressive | March 20th, 2008 at 7:37 pm
Gallup has Sen. Clinton defeating Sen. McCain in a potential match-up 51% to 46% whereas Rasmussen has Sen. McCain defeating Sen. Clinton 51% to 41%.
These kind of statements, although useful for skewing narratives, are misleading unless you predicate them with “when asked bla bla bla, respondents answered thus.” The nature of the question being asked influences the answer.
But you all knew that, right?
2. Geoff | March 20th, 2008 at 10:48 pm
Of course phrasing of the question can go a long ways in skewing the answer, but horse race questions are pretty straightfoward. ‘If the election were held today, who would you vote for….’. There was nothing misleading about the statement you highlighted.
3. NJ McCain | March 21st, 2008 at 12:45 pm
I agree with Geoff. I read many polls daily, and the language used is nothing but ordinary.
I also agree that it’s way early to start predicting a winner in November. However, I do think these polls give us an idea that we’re in for a hard fought race until then.