Picking A Winner
April 14th, 2008 at 09:46pm KMorrison
Conventional wisdom for some time has been that this is a Democratic Presidential year. However, that theory is starting to be tested in a serious way. All signs indicate that the Democrats will be fighting through August where the nominee could be chosen at convention. This creates a huge challenge for the Democrats. First, the two candidates are beating each other up, and showing off each others flaws in big ways. Senator Clinton’s Bosnia remarks and Senator Obama’s ‘bitter’ comments could haunt them throughout the campaign, and if they keep up this pace more damaging remarks will likely come. Second, they have very little time to unite the party. Particularly in a contentious contest they may not win over the other candidate’s supporters. They have 2 months and 6 days from the end of their convention till the general election vote, which means they need to unite the party almost instantaniously, whereas Senator McCain will have had almost eight months to do that. Senator McCain has a huge time advantage not only in unifying his party, but in strategy and in direct campaigning. He stays above the fray, and can emphasize his strengths with little challenge from the left as they are preoccupied.
The decisive advantage that the Dems have had throughout the campaign is money. However, as asked in an article at The Pink Flamingo you have to wonder how much money the candidates will have on hand. Senator McCain, on the other hand, has had the luxury of saving his pennies. Obviously he has taken in less, but at this point in the race he needs less. Also, there is a strong possiblity of contributions increasing. No one wants to put their money on someone who can’t win and as it becomes clearer that his odds of victory are excellent people may be more willing to part with their cash; not to mention that he has Romney and Huckabee helping raise money now as well. Finally, Senator McCain has always had an appeal with Independents and moderate Democrats. If the other candidate comes out their convention battered or damaged Senator McCain could overwhelmingly win middle-of-the-roaders.
Entry Filed under: Barack Obama, Campaign Issues, Hillary Clinton, John McCain, Primaries
4 Comments
1. congressive | April 15th, 2008 at 1:17 am
Trust me on this one… it may be 2 months and six days between convention and election, but with the 24/7 news cycle, it’s gonna seem like a LIFETIME!
2. KMorrison | April 15th, 2008 at 11:28 am
If Obama wins the popular and delegate vote, and Clinton wins it on the superdelegates. I’m sure that two month will seem endless for the Democrats.
3. SD | April 15th, 2008 at 5:55 pm
i am a florida democrat, disgusted on several levels. from being told by the dnc my vote is meaningless, to obama telling me i am a gun toting hick who is stupid, to michelle obama telling us “barack won’t ALLOW us to think”, or whatever she said,,, i am so tired of this disgrace. senator mccain has my total support and my hope for the future.
there are many of us here in florida who refuse to vote “party lines” and are behind senator mccain all the way!
4. FK | April 19th, 2008 at 6:25 pm
Iraq - I support his position on that… BUT his hypocrisy shows LOUD and CLEAR when it comes to our own borders.
I might as well vote for the Democrat, and perhaps I will. One thing for sure, this Republican will NOT vote for McCain.