A poll commissioned by the Bob Lord campaign shows his rival, Rep. John Shadegg, is underperforming in a district many thought safe for the incumbent at the beginning of the year.

According to the poll, conducted by the Washington, D.C. firm Bennett, Petts & Normington, Shadegg enjoys 75 percent name recognition, but only 31 percent of respondents said they will vote for Shadegg in the upcoming election. This is a drop of eight points from a poll conducted earlier in the year when 39 percent of respondents said they would “definitely” or “probably” vote to re-elect him.

The poll also showed that Sen. John McCain has a slimmer-than-expected margin over newly-crowned Democratic opponent Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), capturing 48 percent to 43 percent if the contest were held today. Pres. George W. Bush won the district in 2004 by 58 percent.

In a match-up between a hypothetical Republican and hypothetical Democrat in the congressional race, 35 percent said they’d vote GOP and 34 percent went Democratic. This does not bode well for the Republican Party in a district with a Cook Partisan Voting Index rating of R+6.

McCain admits he may lose AZ.