Picking A Winner
Conventional wisdom for some time has been that this is a Democratic Presidential year. However, that theory is starting to be tested in a serious way. All signs indicate that the Democrats will be fighting through August where the nominee could be chosen at convention. This creates a huge challenge for the Democrats. First, the two candidates are beating each other up, and showing off each others flaws in big ways. Senator Clinton’s Bosnia remarks and Senator Obama’s ‘bitter’ comments could haunt them throughout the campaign, and if they keep up this pace more damaging remarks will likely come. Second, they have very little time to unite the party. Particularly in a contentious contest they may not win over the other candidate’s supporters. They have 2 months and 6 days from the end of their convention till the general election vote, which means they need to unite the party almost instantaniously, whereas Senator McCain will have had almost eight months to do that. Senator McCain has a huge time advantage not only in unifying his party, but in strategy and in direct campaigning. He stays above the fray, and can emphasize his strengths with little challenge from the left as they are preoccupied.
The decisive advantage that the Dems have had throughout the campaign is money. However, as asked in an article at The Pink Flamingo you have to wonder how much money the candidates will have on hand. Senator McCain, on the other hand, has had the luxury of saving his pennies. Obviously he has taken in less, but at this point in the race he needs less. Also, there is a strong possiblity of contributions increasing. No one wants to put their money on someone who can’t win and as it becomes clearer that his odds of victory are excellent people may be more willing to part with their cash; not to mention that he has Romney and Huckabee helping raise money now as well. Finally, Senator McCain has always had an appeal with Independents and moderate Democrats. If the other candidate comes out their convention battered or damaged Senator McCain could overwhelmingly win middle-of-the-roaders.
4 comments April 14th, 2008
